History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Speaking of shotguns.

Shotguns return to relevance in drone warfare

Per the Defense Blog.

As the war in Ukraine continues into its fourth year, one lesson stands out for militaries worldwide: even the simplest weapons can have a place on the modern battlefield.

Among them is the shotgun — a smoothbore firearm long dismissed as outdated, yet now proving its worth against one of the most difficult threats facing soldiers today: small, fast, and deadly FPV drones.

To better understand how this unexpected shift is shaping European defense thinking, Defence Blog spoke with Marco Angelelli, Shooting Instructor and President of the FITAV Commission for Relations with the Armed Forces. During our conversation, Angelelli shared his views on how Ukraine’s battlefield experience is influencing military doctrine, how European countries are starting to respond, and why a seemingly “archaic” weapon may soon become a crucial part of counter-drone defense strategies.

In reply to GameboyRMH :

ISW tends to agree. This first part almost sounds like a False Flag False Flag, in that Russia is setting it up to expect an attack by the west and blame it on Russia, but Russia will actually do that attack...

As Strokers link notes, the support for the war is waning in Russia (and the economic situation will certainly make that worse).  Russia certainly needs a new justification to get everyone on board.

Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition setting phase — “Phase 0” — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on October 6 that the United Kingdom (UK) is planning for a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting for Ukraine to conduct an attack on a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port.[1] The SVR claimed that the saboteurs will claim they were acting on orders from Moscow and that the UK plans to equip the group with Chinese-made underwater equipment in order to blame the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for supporting Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The SVR’s October 6 claim follows similar SVR false flag claims targeting European states, such as Poland, Moldova, and Serbia, and the SVR has been issuing such statements more frequently in recent weeks that constitute a new concerted pattern of activity.[2]

Russia appears to be conducting concerted preparations as part of the physical and psychological condition-setting phase for war contingencies. Russia has been engaged in a variety of overt and covert attacks against NATO states, such as sabotage missions, electronic warfare (EW) interference, GPS jamming, and arson, in recent years.[3] Russia has dramatically increased these attacks on NATO states in recent weeks since Fall 2025 — most notably with the drone incursions into NATO airspace.[4] This pattern of organized activity suggests that Russia has entered the first phase of preparations — “Phase 0” — to move to a higher level of war than the one Russia is currently engaged in, such as a future NATO-Russia war. ISW is not assessing at this time whether the Kremlin has decided to engage in such a higher level of war or on what timeline the Kremlin may expect to do so. Russia has been undertaking longer-term plans that ISW assesses may be part of preparation for a NATO-Russia war in the future, such as the restructuring of Russia’s military districts on its western border and the buildup of military bases on the border with Finland.[5] ISW has not observed indicators that Russia is actively preparing for an imminent conflict with NATO at this time.

Russia’s overt and covert attacks and false flag claims serve multiple purposes for Moscow both internationally and at home. Russia aims to create fear throughout the European population and fragment NATO’s resolve. The wide range in the type and location of the attacks and false flag claims aims to foster a sense that the threat of violence is pervasive throughout all of Europe. Russia aims to use fear in Europe to gain concessions in its war against Ukraine and a possible future NATO-Russia war. Russia is trying to push Europeans to decrease their support of Ukraine out of fear that continued support will increase Russia’s overt or covert attacks. Russia is also trying to push Europe to decrease or cease its ongoing efforts to shore up its defenses out of fear that these efforts will provoke Russian attacks. These efforts are part of Russia’s wider reflexive control campaign that aims to push Russia’s opponents to make policy decisions that actually benefit Russia. The Kremlin’s use of the SVR’s repeated false flag claims aims to affect the Russian population’s views of the West, framing Western actors — not Russia — as responsible for attacks or threat of attacks. The Kremlin is setting conditions to justify and rally public support for any possible future Russian aggression against NATO.

Noddaz said:

Speaking of shotguns.

Shotguns return to relevance in drone warfare

Per the Defense Blog.

As the war in Ukraine continues into its fourth year, one lesson stands out for militaries worldwide: even the simplest weapons can have a place on the modern battlefield.

Among them is the shotgun — a smoothbore firearm long dismissed as outdated, yet now proving its worth against one of the most difficult threats facing soldiers today: small, fast, and deadly FPV drones.

To better understand how this unexpected shift is shaping European defense thinking, Defence Blog spoke with Marco Angelelli, Shooting Instructor and President of the FITAV Commission for Relations with the Armed Forces. During our conversation, Angelelli shared his views on how Ukraine’s battlefield experience is influencing military doctrine, how European countries are starting to respond, and why a seemingly “archaic” weapon may soon become a crucial part of counter-drone defense strategies.

Yeah, #6 shot seems to be the preferred recipe (2.75mm) as it gives a good kinetic kick with a decent shot dispersion.  Tungsten is the preferred load over lead, due to its increased density, but I can't say these days what stock is like of TSS shell.

You can see what drones are like for the boots on the ground here, and you can see the shotgun deployed in counter-drone measures at least twice.  The first you see it firing at what I think is a reconnaissance drone.  The second as a tail gunner in a pickup.

The eagle-eared will note the FPV explosions as the boots traverse through the area.  It seems quite frequent in some of the clips

Different kind of drone action, this is from last Saturday:

You're looking at a med team in the same unit as the previous video (1st International Medical Battalion), Donbass area.  I apologize for the crap quality of the video, but Gary recording (he's the tall Scotsman you see in the video) a laptop screen with his cell phone and sending it through Whatsapp was the only way we could get it out to me at the time.

A bit of backstory:

This was a recently set up med facility in the area.  There's another unit in operation in the same village.  It's supposed to be abandoned, but they found some civilians still living there.  You'll see the first of them evac'd towards the end (they pick up more on their way out)

On the phone and in calls with Gary, we can hear the surveillance drones over the area.  That's why you see everything spread out the way it is (VW Sharan parked at the house, Mini-bus parked about 300 yards away, and I don't know where the ambulance was parked).  It's also why they give pause before leaving the house (stay here and eat a Shahed, or venture out and risk an FPV?).

The guys too, keep their distance when outdoors.  Don't clump up, so only one person gets hit.

It's not a direct strike they're worried about once they're out of the house, it's the shrapnel (as you'll see towards the end).  That's why our camera man drops to the deck near trees, and tries to stay below road level until it's time to go.

The med facility is a loss though.  The whole house shifted because of the blast and the roof started caving in.  Both the Sharan and the ambulance are written off as this is being typed, and everything's been abandoned since (so no OpSec here)

Again, apologies for the poor quality, and for the paypal (I was asked to make this on Gary's behalf, ASAP.  So I never had a chance to make one that was "for info only".  Anyhoo, here's what a Shahed drone attack looks like in the red zone:

Some updates:

In the backwards world of the Russian statements, this seems like an admission of uncertainty:

Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory, which holds that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition, and his demand for Ukraine’s full capitulation....

...Putin’s public statements continue to demonstrate his unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations that result in anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation and his determination to protract the war to achieve his war aims on the battlefield.

The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to use defunct US-Russian arms control treaties to gain concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin is moving to withdraw from the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA)...

They really really really don't want Tomahawks heading their way:

The Kremlin’s moves to withdraw from PMDA likely immediately aim to prevent US sales of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and are part of an ongoing reflexive control campaign. The Kremlin continued on October 8 its reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing US decision-making on Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine.

Evidence of a shot down Flamingo missile.  While not ideal, it clearly shows they are being used:

I was also listening to a Ryan McBeth video on the Russian oil situation.  His main point was that although the attacks on the infrastructure are having an effect, the state of the Russian oil industry is in serious trouble when combining the other issues with it.  Russia oil is apparently rather expensive to extract and the sanctions are making it increasingly difficult for them to make a profit.  They also may be running low on oil in the ground.  Now, as most may know, there is no real shortage of oil in the world, it's more of an issue of it getting harder and harder to extract and they don't have the equipment.  As an example, Russia could extract it from shale (like in the US), but they don't have the technology, and of that would mostly have to come from the west.

The economics in Russia seem to be compounding also.  They have income issues with the oil industry, and a worker shortage which is driving up costs for skilled workers.  Stack that on the fact that they have to pay their soldiers way more than they normally would, it seems like these two lines are going to cross over at some point!  Then of course, you have a large % of the population working for the war effort, which is essentially the government paying people to work, and they pay some back with taxes (clearly a large net loss situation)

Sounds like the Kremlin cupboard is beginning to get bare...

Money may be headed to Ukraine (maybe 210 billion?!):

The question of directing Russian frozen assets to support Ukraine is close to being resolved, — Zelensky.

It's kind of sounding like Tomahawks are going to happen:

Ukraine is currently coordinating all the details with the U.S. regarding the transfer of Tomahawk missiles, — Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine

Here is a big reason why Russia fears them (as noted previously, they would likely have a hard time shooting them down and they are historically VERY accurate):

Russia is saying that Ukraine will HAVE to have US involvement to use them, which, well... I mean the US is likely going to help with training and targeting info, but that is pretty much the same as the Patriot and other systems.  I am pretty certain they don't need the US to program them and launch them.

They REALLY don't want them.  Russia is going for a bit of classic!

The Kremlin continued its reflexive control campaign aimed at deterring the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, including by threatening to deploy Russian missiles to Cuba. Kremlin officials repeated on October 9 recent Kremlin narratives claiming that the United States would have to directly participate in future Ukrainian Tomahawk strikes.

And, in terms of keeping thing going:

ISW assesses, however, that Russia has been increasingly engaging in covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered “Phase 0” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.

In reply to aircooled :

That map is missing Belarus.

In reply to Stampie :

It's showing Belarus as part of Russia, which I suppose isn't technically correct...

In reply to GameboyRMH :

Yeah, kind of insulting I guess.

BTW Belarus is apparently shipping large amounts of gasoline to Russia... they seem to have a bit of a shortage.

The rail crossing into Russia are certain in range of some of the Ukrainians weapons.  Hitting a moving train might be an issue though (the trains they have been hitting in the south are much closer to the front).

Just a recent example of Ukraine's long range attacks. A long ways away:

Long-range drones from the SBU’s Alpha unit struck the Bashneft-Ufa refinery (Bashnafta-UNPZ) in Ufa, Bashkortostan, 1,400 km from Ukraine’s border. The strike reportedly hit the ELOU-AVT-6 crude processing unit. Black smoke rose over the site, with firefighting crews dispatched.

Ran across news that Cuban-hired mercenaries could soon outnumber North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cuban-fighters-in-ukraine/

https://tvpworld.com/89211810/at-least-25000-cubans-could-join-russian-forces-in-ukraine-mp-says

And apparently they think they're being hired to do construction work.

There is supposed to be an announcement by the US about weapons supplies to Ukraine.  This MIGHT include Tomahawks.   It has been signaled though that the threat of Tomahawks may be used as leverage to bring Russia to the table.  My perspective on that (based on what has happened multiple times!) is, give them the Tomahawks first, if they want to negotiate after that then...

This is new, and is guessed that it could be to allow the use of them in someplace like the Baltic States, when they "liberate" them.  As can be seen by Gameboy's post, it's pretty clear Russia is having some serious troop generation issues, although I think the real issue is the "troop de-generation" problem.

Reservists in Russia have been officially allowed to be involved in combat operations abroad, — Russian media

Regarding that other thing.  It's great that fighting has stopped, but I am highly suspicious of the outlook (if you have ANY concept of the history involved).  There is already evidence of Hamas taking over control again (and killing of course), and I see about a .0000001% chance that they actually agree to disarm (if you can even define "them"). I am not entirely sure why they agreed to release the hostages, but my guess is that it is a gambit that once fighting has stopped, the Israelis will have no stomach to start it up again when they go back to the old game. There is some evidence of Hamas opposition forces (not sure if they are actually an improvement). I am also very suspicious of the peace keeping forces (there is a tendency in the area to not like Hamas, but approve of what they are trying to do).  But hey, you never know, maybe people in that area are actually tired of this endless circle of absurdity... history would tend to suggest otherwise...

...although, I should say, historically, two rather extreme "bad" countries did radically change their ways (Germany and Japan).  This was mostly the result of them being entirely beaten down and forced to unconditionally surrender, which allowed complete control of their rebuilding.  It does not seem like the situation here is the same. It would be a bit like not rooting out the SS in Germany (which was done), and trying to rebuild the country / government.

It's a bit like what I say when there is some political candidate that people are excited about:  "I don't know what you are expecting or hoping for, but be prepared to be disappointed"

aircooled said:

It's a bit like what I say when there is some political candidate that people are excited about:  "I don't know what you are expecting or hoping for, but be prepared to be disappointed"

Quoted for truth, it's not lost on me that the two combatants have yet to sign any sort of peace treaty. 

EDIT: And, that escalated quickly https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-fighters-tighten-grip-gaza-clouding-future-ceasefire-2025-10-14/

IMO there's effectively zero chance that Hamas hasn't gained thousands of eager conscripts. The attitude of the current Israili leadership seems simply to be "They are always going to hate and try to kill us. There's little to be gained by half-measures. When they attack, respond with exponentially greater force so as to lengthen the time before the next go-around."

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

IMO there's effectively zero chance that Hamas hasn't gained thousands of eager conscripts. The attitude of the current Israili leadership seems simply to be "They are always going to hate and try to kill us. There's little to be gained by half-measures. When they attack, respond with exponentially greater force so as to lengthen the time before the next go-around."

In other words, Israel is pragmatic.

I have been looking out for a shot like this which shows the number of fiber optic cables strewn over the battlefield.  I found this on in an article on how China is suppling very large amounts of drone parts (and fiber optic cables) to Russia:

Behind Russia’s battlefield drone surge in Ukraine? Chinese factories.

China has materially helped Russia gain a key battlefield advantage in its grinding war against Ukraine, dramatically increasing exports over the summer of key components needed to make the fiber-optic drones that have enabled Moscow to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses on the front lines.....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/international-relations/behind-russia-s-battlefield-drone-surge-in-ukraine-chinese-factories/ar-AA1OmmVM

The particular problem with the Middle East situation that makes it so difficult to control is that it is a state/non-state conflict. Israel is not fighting Palestine; they're fighting one or more groups that claim to represent Palestine. Arguments over the one-state/two-state solutions aside (those are questions for the future; I'm talking about the current situation on the ground), even if Hamas were to agree to disarm, there would be both members who chose to defy the leadership and others outside the organization that would seek to assume the mantle of control. Thus any agreement signed by Hamas is only as good as the ability of all parties to control the situation to avoid it being derailed by some small faction that wants to continue fighting (see below). This is true of both sides (the West Bank settler movement has been hard to rein in as well) and makes any sort of long-term stability quite problematic without constant oversight. Israel has made lasting peace agreements with several Arab states - the irony here, of course, is that if there were a moderately-led, non-hostile Palestinian state, Israel would likely look to make peace with it as well. The history of the conflict there has made this virtually impossible, in no small part because of maximalist claims by parties on both sides of the divide.

While I'm sure they don't want to, I would argue that the best short-term solution would be an overwhelmingly large multinational Arab force (preferably from states not bordering Israel or Gaza) with an international observer component. The Saudis would be the obvious choice here, but they haven't shown much taste for direct involvement. Other formulations have higher risks of backlash, but the worst situation of all is a power vacuum that sees chaos descend on Gaza; this will become exponentially worse the longer it's allowed to continue.

The "great Russian summer / fall offensive" is... maybe.. happening?  It's... not so "great" so far, from what I can see.  As noted previously, there primary focus seems to be the Fortress Belt of cities in eastern Ukraine.  they are attacking from the north and south.  The northern attack, essentially toward Lyman has made some gains, but not much, and may be stalled at this point.

The southern area (where that break through was previously) has shown similar effort, but is clearly complicated by the now surrounded breakthrough group and maybe partially an attempt to supply / free the surrounded troops (although maybe not entirely cut off, their supply routes almost certainly are).  Recently, there have been some decent sized attacks (nothing world shattering really, just way larger then they traditionally have been).  The results seem to be... marginal at best?  The vehicles are heavily covered with nets and jammers.  Use of fiber optic drones clearly counter the jammers, and I suspect once the jammers are at least partially blasted off, the radio versions come it.  

One stat I saw, JUST in this area, was hundreds (as in 300-500) of drones being used a day!  The Russians of course are using similar number of drones, and of course hundreds of glide bombs.  With all the protection on the vehicles, it can take many drones to knock them out (seems like hitting the tracks or getting them to run over a mine is one of the more effective attacks).

The map below shows video evidence of attacks, and you can see where the vehicles were destroyed in an attempt to take Shakhove, which would provide a path to supply or save the cut off units.

Russian forces have conducted three company- and battalion-sized mechanized assaults in priority areas of Donetsk Oblast over the last two weeks, marking an inflection in recent Russian armor usage in Ukraine. Russian forces largely stopped conducting reinforced company-sized mechanized assaults in late 2024 and have only conducted a handful of battalion-sized mechanized assaults during 2025. Russian forces, before October 2025, most recently conducted a battalion-sized mechanized assault in western Zaporizhia Oblast in April 2025.[1] Russian forces have largely favored leveraging small groups of infantry to conduct infiltration missions and make slow advances throughout the frontline over conducting mechanized assaults during the first nine months of 2025.[2] Russian forces are still leveraging infantry to advance but have conducted several comparatively larger mechanized assaults in their priority Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas of Donetsk Oblast in recent weeks.

Russian forces appear to be conducting larger mechanized assaults during rainy and foggy weather conditions, which complicate Ukrainian drone operations. The Ventusky weather radar recorded moderate to slightly heavy rainfall during the morning of October 9 and light rainfall on the morning of October 13 at the respective locations of the Russian mechanized assaults.

aircooled said:

I have been looking out for a shot like this which shows the number of fiber optic cables strewn over the battlefield.  I found this on in an article on how China is suppling very large amounts of drone parts (and fiber optic cables) to Russia:

That's a sunflower field?  I imagine all those fiber cables make it a nightmare for farmers trying to get their fall harvest done.

OK... so...   Anyone seen the movie Groundhog day?....

Apparently there was a call.  Some mention of Tomahawks, but clearly that is not going to happen in the near term.  BUT, there will be meetings to discuss ending the war, again.  Possibly in 2 weeks (again).  I am HIGHLY suspicious this will result in maximalist demands by Russia, again (they have NOT changed there statements on this really at all.. ever!).  A refusal (obviously) to submit to anything close to that by Ukraine, again.  Then a breakdown of talks because there is nothing to work with, again....

Trump announced that in US-Russia talks on ending the war in Ukraine, the American side will be represented by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

A bit of history:

In a Anthony Weldon book titled The Court and Character of King James, published in 1651, Weldon references an Italian proverb, and restates it as:

    "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me"

A quote, commonly attributed to Einstein, but there is no record of him saying it:

   "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

Since I brought it up.  Anyone ever wonder how long Phil Conners was stuck in the time loop in Groundhog day?  There are varied estimates but this seems to be the accepted best guess:

Gallagher was much more scrutinizing about Phil Connors’ talents, estimating that it likely took closer to seven-and-a-half years for him to become an “exceptional pianist,” between seven and 10 years for him to learn to sculpt ice, and roughly 12 years to become fluent in French.

Factoring in all of the other days in the film — the days shown and the days mentioned — Gallagher reached his ultimate conclusion: Phil Connors was stuck in the time loop for 12,395 days.

That’s 33 years and 350 days.

Needless to say, I am very much not optimistic.  O2 can probably give a more rational analysis (!)

Trying not to be political, but given recent history, I'd assume the Ukrainians are going to be taking the vice president being part of the delegation as a direct insult at the worst, or a signal of Washington's level of commitment to getting them a good deal at best.  Of course, it sounds like these talks are primarily between the USA and Russia, anyway.

As noted here before, the talks that paused the Korean War (it's still not over, officially) took over a year of constant negotiations. If you are trying to stop a war, talking is usually better than not talking, assuming you're unwilling to employ force directly.

My read is that the public discussion of Tomahawks is being used to spur Russia toward a negotiated settlement. If Russia pulls the same thing again, Ukraine gets them. If Russia still won't play ball, Ukraine gets to use them against targets in Russia. If that doesn't do it, well, I'm sure they'll figure out another way to raise Russia's costs. Ukraine is sort unnecessary to the talks at this point, because both sides know they'll keep fighting until they are offered a deal that they can tolerate.

The interesting bit of this is that Russia seems to be ramping up its hybrid warfare capabilities, but it's not using them against the US (yet); they've been directed almost exclusively at Europe. I think this is being done in a misguided attempt to undermine popular support in Europe for assisting Ukraine and weaken NATO - it will do neither of these things. There have been some speedbumps that Russia likely had a hand in, but overall the current governments in the major EU countries seem defiant, not overawed.

As for the US, Trump is coming off a major PR win in Gaza (assuming it holds) and is looking to capitalize. He just announced that India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil, based on a phone call that India is currently claiming no knowledge of; this may be Trump trying to maneuver Modi into action, or Modi wanting to avoid domestic energy concerns from snowballing - we'll see in coming days. Trump will keep pushing, as he feels that with Gaza now moving toward resolution, Ukraine is the one major conflict left to leverage into a win for his administration.

In reply to 02Pilot :

OK, thanks for that.

Clearly I am a bit frustrated and impatient with the whole thing.

Reports are coming in that Russia was working so hard to shoot down Ukranian drones that they shot down one of their own jets, an Su-30SM