Give me a stock tip.

In reply to dculberson :

Home brew my friend.

I'm a statistician and all of the off-the-shelf stuff I've seen either ignores important variables or lacks resolution i.e "here's our plan for 60 to 65 year old's"...I'm 60.351 years old dagnabbit, hold my beer while I math the berk out of this formula and get it to a razor, laser sharp point.  

I don't know how much money I have or when I'll retire. They tell me that in my retirement, I'm funded to have my accounts continue to grow. My 'savings' go to another manged account that is in mild risk, but not anything like my choices here. Meanwhile if I had kept my AMZN on Oct 24th, I'd have >15% more return that I've had on UPS.

Tesla is on fire!

Wait...

Let me rephrase that.

TSLA is over 300!

LOL.

We bought carnival cruise line stock a while back at 7.80... it is now around 24.50. 
 

I set it up to sell at $25, but I'm wondering if I should ride it further. 
 

should have bought it and royal Caribbean during covid. RC actually gives discounts to stock holders who have at least 100 share. 

Oh man yeah Royal Caribbean popped off after covid ran it's course.

So, some people are talking about why Mr. Buffett (no, not Jimmy) is selling so much stock.  Maybe he knows something?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/why-is-warren-buffett-selling-so-much-stock/ar-AA1tNhYc

I was very surprised to see this in the article...

The forward looking P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is currently around 22.2 which is pretty frothy but trying to time the market has proven time and again to be a fool's errand.

I just buy and hold and let the fundamental principles do their compoundy thing.

"The market takes the stairs up and the escalator down"...we'll get a nice correction at some point and selection bias will have the few that timed it right mistake luck for talent and brag publicly causing some to take unnecessary risk due to behavioral factors like greed, FOMO, etc..

Whatever, I just do what the math sez' I should do and not worry about any of it.

Anyone got anything that looks interesting to them lately?

Indy - Guy said:

Anyone got anything that looks interesting to them lately?

 

Options on electric vehicles that are not Tesla...

Indy - Guy said:

Anyone got anything that looks interesting to them lately?

 

Euro military stuff has seen a sharp rise these last 6 months.

Rheinmetall, Thales, and Bae systems, mostly.  Airbus and RYCEY to a lesser degree.

Might be worth watching or getting in on.

I'm dabbling a bit with GLD and it too seems to be performing well.

Back on pg 7 dated: Feb 3, 2021:

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said :

.....

Rolls Royce aviation division (RYCEY) took a huge hit between Feb and December 2020 and is now steadily trading at $1.37.  I have every expectation that this will go back up to it's original values in a year or two (9million jabs so far in the UK, 500k got their second jabs per Sky news this morning.  Sputnik is showing a 90-something vaccine rate).  Plus they just acquired some maritime tech.

 

Full disclosure, i dont know diddly or squat. 2 years ago i made a "how to buy stocks thread" and have made a consistent (but meager) 10% steadily since then. I only just discovered that some of my dividends didnt get reinvested and thought i'd play a bit.

 

Good times

Well RYCEY popped again today to 9.17 (interday):

669% gain from your recommendation about 4 years ago.  Nice pick!

In reply to Indy - Guy :

I came here to post that too. Threw $100 at 20 shares when it was at $5.

AMZN is back under $200. Buy the dip? I'm back in just a little higher than when I sold in November.

Indy - Guy said:

Back on pg 7 dated: Feb 3, 2021:

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said :

.....

Rolls Royce aviation division (RYCEY) took a huge hit between Feb and December 2020 and is now steadily trading at $1.37.  I have every expectation that this will go back up to it's original values in a year or two (9million jabs so far in the UK, 500k got their second jabs per Sky news this morning.  Sputnik is showing a 90-something vaccine rate).  Plus they just acquired some maritime tech.

 

Full disclosure, i dont know diddly or squat. 2 years ago i made a "how to buy stocks thread" and have made a consistent (but meager) 10% steadily since then. I only just discovered that some of my dividends didnt get reinvested and thought i'd play a bit.

 

Good times

Well RYCEY popped again today to 9.17 (interday):

 

669% gain from your recommendation about 4 years ago.  Nice pick!

Still riding this ROCKET !  Here's the one year chart

Anything else look interesting to take a gamble on ?

Indy - Guy said:

Anyone got anything that looks interesting to them lately?

 

GMWFK (Games Workshop), the people who make Warhammer. They are up massive after the success of Space Marine 2 the video game, but they are poised for much, much more when the Henry Cavill led Amazon project comes to fruition. I bought into them in 2019, much to my Financial Advisor's annoyance, and they have been stellar. 

Looks like AMD is going to the moon on this AI boom.  

You should have bought Oracle stock at the end of last year. It's up 52% YTD.

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) said:

AMZN is back under $200. Buy the dip? I'm back in just a little higher than when I sold in November.

If you bought in, you did well. 15% up since March. Then again, the index funds I've stuck to are up 13% since then so not bad.

I've only ever owned some RSUs I worked for and never gambled on stocks before, but I'm really, really tempted to get a Robinhood account, scrape my last dollars together and put it all on shorting AI stocks:

https://pluralistic.net/2025/09/27/econopocalypse/

Edit: Just ran across another relevant article:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ai-bubble-is-17-times-the-size-of-the-dot-com-frenzy-this-analyst-argues-046e7c5c

They got that bubble, but aa seen in the Pitt Race thread, they also have some prime real-estate, energy, and water items tied up in many municipalities. If E36 M3 goes south, it's gonna wreck a bunch of others with it. That checks out, might have to put some $ into the short.

In reply to Javelin :

I guess changing the rules every 2 years so your customers get pissed off and have to buy new stuff IS a good business model after all.

I've run across some news recently that's giving me a better idea of when the AI bubble will pop, I'm thinking some time between right now and the end of 2026, and more likely sooner than later, it may even be starting already:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-25/-this-is-not-my-first-bubble-nvidia-s-bear-stands-his-ground?embedded-checkout=true

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/meta-stock-earnings-ai-spend.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/microsoft-msft-q1-2026-earnings-report.html

More signs that the AI bubble pop is already starting: 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html